Week of June 31st
Posted: July 31, 2010 Filed under: Uncategorized 2 CommentsHere is a summary of the news in Europe this week:
On the economic level, Europe and the Eurozone is still in a weak situation, but stable that let an hope for a slow recovery [*]. The last indicators are stables; unemployment is flat [*], the yearly inflation is estimated to 1.7% [*], the saving end investment rate are decreasing [*] and the economic and business indexes are higher [*,*].
The International Monetary Fund published its growth estimates. The IMF back the efforts to cut deficit [*], but is warning some member states over their overestimation of growth or economic recovery [*,*].
The results from the banks stress tests last week did, after some uncertain time, satisfy the markets [*,*].
The Euro finally went beyond $1.30 at the last of the week, but it doesn’t seem to be completely comfortable there.
The Union officially created the External Action Service this week with the final agreement from the Foreign ministers. This diplomatic Service should be setup by the end of the year and will work on the European external action under the responsibility of Lady C. Ashton. [*,*,*,*] The EEAS ihas been criticized as too big or too expensive, but once scale to the aim at the service, its organisation is somehow classical. (Read this Memo which is a great start to understand the organization of the EEAS)
Since we are talking about external action: The Union adopted this week a new round of sanctions against Iran. President Ahmadinejad did promised a strong answer to the sanctions [*,*,*].
Membership negotiations with Iceland started this week ; the chapter on fishing will be the most tricky. Moreover, the Icelandic public is, mostly not in favor of the EU membership of their country [*,*,*].
Turkey, waiting for membership for years, received the support of Prime Minister D. Cameron, who accuses France and Germany of hypocrisy whe it comes to the place of Turkey in Europe. [*,*]
The European Union now counts more than half a billion of citizen – thanks to migratory fluxes [*,*].
And on those news, The Union goes in vacation.
During the next week, I’ll be in seminar (on exotic beams if you really want to now) – And thus away from the Euro-web-bubble. But some posts are programmed to be published on the blog during my absence, so you you won’t miss me. See you next weekend.
Semaine du 31 Juillet 2010
Posted: July 31, 2010 Filed under: Uncategorized 2 CommentsVoici le résumé de l’actualité Européenne de la semaine:
Au niveau économique, l’Europe et la zone euro sont toujours dans une situation faible, mais cependant stable qui laisse espérer une reprise lente[*]. Les derniers indicateurs sont stables: le chômage est flat [*], l’inflation annuelle est estimée à 1.7% [*], le taux d’épargne et d’investissement en Europe est en baisse [*] et les indices économiques et du commerce sont en hausse [*,*].
Le Fond Monétaire International a également publié ses estimations de croissances. Le FMI soutient les effort de réduction de déficit [*], mais met en garde certains pays membres qui surestiment leur croissance ou la reprise de leur économie [*,*].
Les résultats des Stress Tests des banques la semaine dernière, ont, après un temps d’incertitude, satisfait les marchés [*,*].
L’Euro a finalement passé les $1.30 en fin de semaine, mais il n’y semble pas complétement à l’aise.
L’Union a officiellement crée le Service d’Action Extérieure cette semaine avec l’accord finale des ministres des Affaires Étrangères. Ce service diplomatique devrait prendre corps d’ici la fin de l’année et mènera l’action Européenne à l’étranger sous la responsabilité de Lady C. Ashton. [*,*,*,*] Le SEA est parfois critiqué pour sa taille et son budget, mais une fois ramené à l’objectif de ce service, son organisation interne est somme toute classique (voir ce Memo qui est un tres bon debut pour comprendre l’organisation du SEAE).
Puisque nous parlons d’action extérieure: l’Union a adopté cette semaine de nouvelles sanctions contre l’Iran. Le président Ahmadinejad a promis de une réponse forte contre ces sanctions [*,*,*].
Les négociations d’adhésions avec l’Islande ont officiellement commencées cette semaine ; le chapitre relatif à la pêches risque d’être le gros morceaux de ces négociations. Le public Islandais est, de plus, majoritairement défavorable à l’adhésion de leur pays à l’Union [*,*,*].
La Turquie, en négociation d’adhésion depuis des années, a reçue le soutient du Premier Ministre Britannique D. Cameron, qui accuse la France et l’Allemagne d’hypocrisie quand il est question de la place de la Turquie dans l’Union. [*,*]
L’Union Européenne compte maintenant plus d’un demi-million de citoyens – grâce aux flux migratoires [*,*].
Et sur ces nouvelles, l’Union part en vacances.
Durant la semaine prochaine, je serais en séminaire (sur les faisceaux exotiques si vous voulez tout savoir) – Et donc absent de la bulle webo-Européenne. Cependant des billets ont été programmés pour être publiés sur le blog pendant mon absence pour que je ne vous manque pas trop. See you next weekend.
Wikileaks ne devrait pas exister…
Posted: July 30, 2010 Filed under: opinion Leave a comment… pour la simple raison que les gouvernements ne devraient pas garder de précieux documents pour leur propre usage.
Mon argumentation sera relativement pauvre simple et directe – j’ai tout simplement la conviction que garder des documents secret n’apporte pas grand chose. C’est tout simplement malhonnête pour un officiel de cacher ou arranger des informations au public.
Les citoyens sont plutôt exigeants envers leur politiciens, lesquels le sont beaucoup moins avec eux même. Continuer à garder des documents secret ne corrige pas vraiment cela.
La transparence permettrait aussi aux citoyens de faire des choix éclairées lors des élections, pour pouvoir prendre des décisions sur la base de faits réels.
Mais attention, ce n’est pas parce que tous les documents officiels devraient être accessibles que tout le monde devrait y accéder… ou surtout les interpréter. Parcourir des documents sensibles sans avoir la formation et les connaissances nécessaire pour en faire une interprétation censée, c’est courir un risque encore plus grand que de garder ces documents secrets – Une mauvaise description de la réalité est pire que pas de réalité du tout.
Is European Union really this complicated ?
Posted: July 29, 2010 Filed under: opinion 1 CommentWell, the honest answer is : yes, EU is f——ing complicated and anybody who will pretend the opposite is a liar.
But you need to ask two more question : Is this complexity normal ? and Does this prevent me (or anybody) to get a grip of what’s going on ?
The answers to these last questions are: Yes and No.
Yes, this level of complexity is, overall, normal giving the extent of the European project: try to get 27 countries with 23 languages (at least) to work together, act together on the international scene (or at least pretend try to), and create Union wide regulation, and you’ll always have to reach a certain level of complexity, compromises, … Some aspect of the EU bubble could certainly be simplified, a lot of transparency could be added, and a real team spirit would be very welcome, but ultimately, the EU institutions will always have this apparent over-complexity simply due to their uniqueness.
And No, this complexity does not prevent YOU from understanding what is going on in Brussels. For example, the Commission Midday Express is generally easy to read and understand. Other Memos and short documents – available in your favorite languages – are also clear and indicate the good number and statistics (which is not always the case in newspaper). So every citizen who wants to know what is going on can do so. Again, there are some improvement to be made, but it is far impossible to understand the general lines of the EU policies.
It certainly take some personal work and commitment, but despite its complexity, the Euro-world is not completely unintelligible.
Où va-t-il chercher tout cela ?
Posted: July 27, 2010 Filed under: blogosphere 1 CommentLa question quotidienne que se pose le bloggeur est de façon évidente : qu’est ce que je vais blogger ? La publication régulière et si possible fréquente de nouveaux billets est la raison d’être d’un blog. Comme l’écrivain devant sa page blanche, le bloggeur peut se retrouver seul face à un <textarea></textarea> vide.
C’est cette question “Qu’est-ce que je vais blogger ?” qui m’a longtemps fait hésiter à démarrer un blog. J’ai finalement trouvé une alternative en choisissant de publier un billet hebdomadaire qui passe en revue les actualités des 7 derniers jours; j’étais soulagé du fardeau de devoir trouver un sujet.
C’est donc en suivant l’actualité que j’ai découvert, que le bloggeur valeureux n’a pas à chercher de sujet, il suffit de les choisir parmi tous ceux qui nous passe devant les yeux. D’ailleurs les premiers billets d’opinion que j’ai écrit ici sont directement inspirés d’éléments lus dans les médias.
L’actualité nous fourni tous les sujets dont on peut rêver, il suffit de s’en saisir et de réagir.
Know your classics
Posted: July 26, 2010 Filed under: opinion 1 CommentI have been quoting some classics of literature in the past: W. Shakespeare or J. Austen – and I also got some other quote from Homer by example up my sleeves… But here, I am going to talk about a different kind of classics; those anyone interested in the European affairs should read at least once, and even get a copy à portée de main.
The titles of these could-be bestseller : «Treaty on European Union», «Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union», «Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union» and the lost «Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe»
Ok, some of those are very big and hard to read… But go at list for the TEU (Treaty on European Union) which is relatively short (about 40 pages) and somehow easy to read.
So go ahead, download a copy in your favourite language, and get too know the EU more intimately.
Week of July 24th
Posted: July 24, 2010 Filed under: Uncategorized 1 CommentFor your pleasure and information, here is a summary of the European news this week:
The big thing of the week, is, again, economy:
- First, at the beginning of the week, the rating agency Moody’s, downgraded the Irish debt by a notch [*,*,*] following uncertainty on growth in Ireland which had dramatically slowed down. This news didn’t triggered panic – or other visible effects – on the markets.
- The private sector in the eurozone shows a strong growth; industrial production gained almost 1% in a month [*,*,*]
- For most of the week, the results of the bank Stress Tests have been expected. Those tests aim to show the solidity of the European banks in the event of an hypothetical financial crisis. The Euro was also in uncertainties this week, leaded by questions on the nature, accuracy and toughness of the tests [*].Finally, 7 out of 91 banks fail the test[*,*,*,*]. Those results are in agreement with what the markets were expecting and therefore are fairly well received, but don’t renew any enthusiasm toward the euro. Moreover, the raw data of the test are to be made available to allow anyone who wants to check the results by themselves to do so.
- The euro had a bumpy week, but got back Friday at its Monday level ($1.29) and don’t seems to be ready to pass above $1.30. [*]
In the domain of sciences, the commission announced an increase by 12% of the budget for scientific research, in order to create science jobs and boost the research for green energies.[*] The experimental reactor ITER will have to fill its budget gap by using cash left of other programs, there won’t be new funds for the project[*].
Let’s remind that the European Parliament is in summer recess, which reduce the Euro news by as much – and leave some rest to the eurobloggers who can devote themselves to themselves work on a makeover to the Euroblog world (see this post with all the links)
On this blog in particular, and to continue my addiction habit of giving the latest €/$ exchange rate on twitter, I open a new page EuroWatch that will give regularly the value of the Euro and the different news and economic events that influence the trend
Finally, as I give you the summary of the past week, euroblogelin.eu give you, at the beginning of the week, the agenda of the euroblogs for the days to come.
Semaine du 24 Juillet
Posted: July 24, 2010 Filed under: Uncategorized 1 CommentPour votre plaisir et votre information, voici le résumé de l’actualité Européenne de la semaine:
Le gros dossier de la semaine est – encore une fois – l’économie.
- D’abord, en début de semaine, l’agence de notation Moody’s a rétrogradé la note de la dette Irlandaise d’un cran [*,*,*] suite à des inquiétudes sur la croissance Irlandaise qui a fortement ralentie. Cette nouvelle n’a cependant pas déclenché de panique (ni autre effet notable) sur les marchés.
- Le secteur privé dans l’euro zone montre une forte croissance, la production industrielle ayant un gain de presque 1% en un mois [*,*,*]
- L’essentiel de la semaine a été une période d’attente des résultats des Stress Tests sur les banques Européennes. Ces tests ont pour but de montrer la robustesse des institutions bancaires face à une hypothétique crise financière. L’euro a connu une semaine d’incertitude liée aux questions que les économistes et analystes se posent sur la nature, la précisions et la difficultés de ces tests [*]. Au final, sur les 91 banques testés, 7 ne passent pas le test[*,*,*,*]. Ces résultats sont conformes à ce que les marchés attendaient et sont donc plutôt bien reçu, même si ils ne créent pas un relent d’enthousiasme pour l’euro. De plus, les données brutes vont être également rendu publique pour permettre à qui veut de vérifier ces résultats par eux même.
- L’euro a connu une semaine mouvementée, mais revient vendredi soir au niveau de lundi ($1.29) et ne semble pas décidé à passer au dessus des $1.30. [*]
Dans le domaine des sciences, la commission annonce une augmentation de 12% du budget pour la recherche scientifique, afin de créer des emplois scientifique et booster la recherche vers des énergies vertes.[*] Le réacteur expérimental ITER devra combler son budget en allant chercher la monnaie restantes dans d’autres programmes, il n’y aura pas de nouvelle levée de fonds[*].
Rappelons que le Parlement Européen est en vacances, ce qui réduit d’autant les news européennes – et donne par conséquent un peu de repos aux bloggeurs qui peuvent se consacrer à leur nombril donner un make over au monde des blogs Européens (voir ici pour un billet avec des liens vers tout ce qu’il faut)
Sur ce blog en particulier, pour donner suite à mon habitude de faire le point sur le taux de change €/$ sur twitter, j’ouvre une nouvelle page EuroWatch qui donnera régulièrement la valeur de l’euro et les différents évènements économiques qui vont avec ces variations.
Enfin, alors que je vous donne le résumé de la semaine passée, euroblogelin.eu vous donne en début de semaine l’agenda des euroblogs pour les jours à venir.
Don’t stress…
Posted: July 22, 2010 Filed under: opinion 4 CommentsThe European Union will release tomorrow the results of the so called bank stress tests. Those tests are aimed at estimate the strength of European banks and their ability to survive a financial crisis.
Since the beginning of the week, there has been an increasing expectation and concern among economists and analysts – which translated into a fall back of the Euro – particularly at a time when the fear of a double dip or W-shape recession is growing due to gloomy indicators in the US.
Here are a list of possible scenarios :
- Straight A: if all the banks pass the test summa cum laude, that will simply be too good to be true [*], and the assumption that Europe has some bad news to hide will fuel the doubts on European finance.
- Bad news: Some bad news, like too much banks failing, or big banks doesn’t passing would be a very bad surprise, and naturally start a new trust crisis.
- Overall OK: The only acceptable outcome would be to have the big banks passing and a few smaller, less important, failing or near failing. A result with no bad surprise, neither good surprise. (Basically, the market will be happy only if it gets what it expects)
- Clear test: A final element is how clear and transparent the tests are. If it is not clear enough what the banks have to achieve to pass the test and how it asserted, that would raise the concerns that Europe wants to hide some not-too-good details.
Given this possible outcomes, one extra element is going to be very important:
A bank failing the test is not on the verge of collapse, it will just be in danger in case of a violent economic incident (which is not so muhc unlikely now that the fear of a double dip are growing) ; so the big question for failing banks is what is the plan to get them more solid : will there be any requirement, government plan to help them, …
All will be answer tomorrow, so see you this weekend for a debrief.
GM crops: that’s your problem
Posted: July 20, 2010 Filed under: Uncategorized 1 CommentOn July 13th, the European Commission officially announced its plan for a new regulation of GM crops – My comments follow.
Full disclosure: My not so valuable opinion:
Let’s start with a simple point: my point of view on GM crops.
To tell the thing fast, GM crops are a bad solution to a real problem: using GM crops allow to continue an intensive agriculture without the need (or with a lesser need) for insecticides, fertilizers or other chemicals that would then infiltrate the underground water and watercourses. However, it does not resolve the real need of an agriculture always expanding – and that is the true challenge for it today.
If I am not too worry of a presence of GM crops in my plate – as long as I can choose to do so and am correctly informed – the spreading of GMOs and the risk it poses to biodiversity is far greater in my opinion.
What does the Commission says ?
The proposition from the Commission – if adopted, we’ll get back on this – would allow member states to ban GM crops on all or parts of their territory, without referring to the safeguard clause (which need to point to concern over health or environment safety), without asking the authorization of the Commission (necessary so far), on criteria “other than those based on a scientific assessment of health and environmental risks”. The aim is to take into account the “local, regional and national” specifics.
The Commission will still have to approve the GM crops at the EU scale, “based on scientific assessment of health and environmental risks“. The presence of GMOs in a proportion greater than 0.9% in food will have to be indicated on labels.
This proposal is motivated, according to the Commission, by an objective of giving “more flexibility” to member states and a “genuine freedom” that take the concerns of the citizens into account.
Read here the Press Release from the Commission.
What to say about this proposition ? – Or, what do I say about it
“That’s your problem now”
Clearly, the Commission, while keeping its responsability of rejecting GM crops which obviously present a risk for health or environment – those that nobody would want anyway – is virtually discharging itself of the topic towards the member states: Since the member states can easily ban GMOs on their territory, the Commission will be much more at ease to authorize those crops.
Chicken
By getting rid of the case, the Commission shows an obvious lack of courage and audacity. I almost would have prefered that the Commission has decided to say Yes to GM crops without giving any options to the member states – a decision that I would have highly criticized for other reasons – which would have least had been the sing of a political bravery, of a Commission not afraid to take big decisions.
What about Europe ?
This decision which give the last word to member states is removing any sort of European Union regulation. What is the interest of a Commission, if it is just freeing itself from the tricky topics on the back of the States.
Environment and Public Health are, I believe, two domains not depending on language or the local culture from a country to another, and should then been dealt with at the European Level.
PR Fail
This episode is also a terrible public relation for Europe: the Union, in the person of the Commission, is taking the role of the villain authorizing GM crops; and the national governments are saving the population from this GM culture invasion.
Europe is, again, going to be viewed as a liberal institution, at the service of large corporation like Monsanto.
All’s not lost:
This proposal falls under the rules of codecision, which means that the European Parliament have its say. And we are again in the situation we already seen earlier this year with the Thombin (read here, there, and sometime here) ; a situation I described as a perfect text-book example of the legislative process in the Union.
This issue will probably keep us busy and be at the center of debate: between the ones opposing GM crops that will think a national government might be easier to influence that the whole Union, other opposed to GM crops that won’t accept the a priori approval of GM crops at the European Level, … The variety and complexity of point of view won’t make the debate easier (but certainly interesting).
If we ever need to, let’s remind ourselves that European Citizen now have the right of Citizen Initiative ; we might need to use it to force the Commission to take full responsibility and take back the whole case.
EU Weekly 